From Seasonality to Semantics: Benchmarking a Hybrid Probabilistic Forecasting System for Roadblocks in Bolivia

This paper combines Prophet-based time-series decomposition with semantic embeddings and zero-shot classification over six years of Bolivian news to forecast roadblocks probabilistically. Across an expanding walk-forward evaluation covering 1,762 days and horizons H+1 through H+7, the reported hybrid configuration outperformed statistical baselines including SARIMA and LightGBM. According to the abstract, it reached 0.677 AUC-ROC at H+1 and reduced the Brier Score from 0.247 to 0.220, a relative improvement of 10.9%, with statistically significant error reductions across all tested horizons.